Tarun Dua

Flashback circa 2005 AD Time to make predictions and observations all over again. One year is hardly a span of time where a revolution in making is apparent.

The last year's major prediction from yours truly was about the Application Service Provider Model(ASP).
The fundamental idea behind the ASP model of solutions is trust us with your data and we'll take care of everything including backup/recovery(transparently), upgradation in lieu of rent. The ASP model advantages being ability to integrate/diffuse the capture/push of data to customer, vendors, suppliers and other business partners becomes a reality through web-services.

So what has happened last year is the promises of efficiencies to be gained through trusting an ASP provider with your data are becoming a reality.

A. So what is happening this year on the Web?
Web 2.0: The return of the web.

a. E-mail: Providers driven by ad-revenue driven/relatively inexpensive are providing non-locked, unrestricted Web 2.0 interface and ability to transfer all your data.
Remember right after the dotcom bust when everyone told you the party is over, accept a paid for e-mail account or you are resigned to crappy pop-up ad ridden slow web-based e-mail account with space enough to store a couple of hundred mails including spam.

b. Simple Content Management/Tagging/RSS based Systems productized: Drupal, Wordpress based or otherwise free blog hosting is available now cheap and automated through a number service providers. Commoditization of personal blogging tools(including podcast) including cheap hosting is now a reality.
Enterprises still like to hold dear their own wiki's withing their own networks or their own hosting infrastructure. But the direction of this field is clear. Its a Web 2.0 all the way with zillions of services cropping up all over the place to support the self publishing medium called bloggin.

c. Pictures: Simple access control based free photo album ad-revenue driven ASP solutions to whom you trust the pictures of your loved ones.

d. Video: Cheap Digital videos stored by your favourite ad-revenue driven ASP for free.

e. Addressbooks: Online addressbooks available to your favourite e-mail client software anywhere you go without depending on your local LDAP addressbooks are ubiquitous now.

f. Social Networks: Did you not hear about the coming singularity. The world is becoming a vast interconnected social network. We do need a single data interchange format for connecting all of these networks together. Or the fragmentation would be one big failure like the legacy Instant Messaging networks.

g. CRM/SFA: Customer Relationship Management and Salesforce Automation Solutions as ASPs are now the de-facto standard way these softwares must be used. The old world solutions that took months and armies of consultants to roll out have now truly been consigned to the dustbin of history. Here again the data interchange is only possible with extensive one time investment into migration between competing ASPs. So although your data hosted with an ASP is available to you through web-services or CSV export features in theory, it is a pain to be able to seamlessly migrate from one ASP to another as yet.

h. Project Management: New kids on the block are offering ad-driven or inexpensive Project Management solutions. Go take your own pick.

i. ERP/Personal Accounting and the remaining office on the move tools: Big opportunity area for this coming year.

j. Mobile: All of the above have moved to Mobile accessible Internet: Another big opportunity area. There several times more mobile phone users as compared to PC users.

k. Random Puzzle pieces:
1. Maps: integrating with the above solutions whereever there is a need for clicking on an address to get
a location
2. Courier Tracker information, some of the best supply chain implementation examples.
3. Price Grabbers
4. Review Sites: Should I include third party content review sites as well as online store reputation
review sites.
5. Financial Review/Data sites

B. What is happening to the Telecoms ?
The rent seeking business model of the telecoms is coming to an end. It has re-emerged in the Mobile Telephony in some markets(read US/Europe). But on the whole it looks as if the telcos are going to work harder to earn their daily bread.

C. About Freedom ?
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. Thanks to Internet the vigilance is now taking a better shape.
The bureaucrats and rulers of Hindustan are meddlesome as ever into the lives of people but for once the tide of freedom seems to be evenly balanced against the rise of despotism. Interesting as US rapidly slides into despotism Indians are experiencing more freedom.

"The once-chained people whose leaders at last lose their grip on information flow will soon burst with freedom and vitality, but the free nation gradually constricting its grip on public discourse has begun its rapid slide into despotism."

The game developers at Firaxis seemed to have predicted the immediate future.

D. About Startups ?

For once the Silicon Valley has a glut of Venture Capital chasing startups and it is more un-needed than ever before. The lowered cost of basic Datacenter Infrastructure ( yeah its heated up a bit in the past few months but it is still more bang for buck than it ever was earlier ) and the rapid success of ASP solutions has enabled creation of Web 2.0 startups "cheaper" than ever. The seed stage investors and early buyouts by the big Internet Companies seems to be the order of the day rather than big ticket VC investment leading to public companies.

E. So where are all the cool Delhi/Bangalore based startups ?
The close of year saw a spurt of loose Angel funding groups getting active in India. Let us wish all Indian geeks best wishes for starting up in the New Year on their own. With advantages like access to huge largely un-tapped market place at home and lower cost of survival year after year while hitting at the big guys through mean and nimble Web 2.0 startups can "we" now prove the world is flat. We shall know more in the rest of the decade.