controls

Importing inflation indian style

Are India's opposition politicians/policy makers(and most of the media covering them) blind or deaf or statistically challenged or just that demagoguery is their only religion. Oppose everything(politicians), or objectively analyze everything(media), understand nothing and refuse to ask the real questions, public interest and a 'free' market economy be damned.

The dichotomy of trying to run a market economy with a monetary policy suitable for socialist era is explained brilliantly by Ajay Shah
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India is in a big mess on monetary policy. The attempt that is under way consists of pegging the rupee to the dollar at a time when the dollar has dropped sharply. Dollar prices of many commodities have risen since producers do not like being short-changed with the same number of dollars. Holding Rs 40 a dollar intact, the global increase in commodity prices has been imported into India.
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Long ago in early nineties the first gulf war oil shocks caused a meltdown in an in-efficient license quota raj riddled indian economy(read no one bought anything from us) resulting in a balance of payments crisis. That was then, between now and then the economy was put on a path of economic liberalization but riddled with roadblocks, speed breakers and toll booths just like our highways. The politics in India is so bad that any political party in opposition goes on to oppose the same policies they implemented while they were a part of executive( in power ).

The monetary policy followed by India is best described by this dialog from the bollywood film Rang De Basanti "ek paon past mein, ek paon future mein, isiliye to aaj pe moot rahe hain (we have one leg in past, one leg in future, that is why we are pissing on the present)".

Debt , Capital Inflows, Controls and Suffering

The usual IANAE(I am not an economist) and random weekend ramblings.
Currently the Home Loan interest rates in US fixed interest for 15-30 years are between 6 to 6.5%. The Home Loan floating rate in India is between 10.5 to 11% and I am told only 5 year fixed interest rate at 12% is available%. USD is slowly sliding against currencies of the world including the INR. The incentives for moving money from US to India are far greater than from US to China (what with their overheated stock market and realty). The interest rate on personal loans and credit card debt are similarly plagued with un-productive and un-sustainable interest rates. On the other hand the interest earned by small investors on debt instruments remains relatively low, reflecting an in-efficient or non-competing oligopolistic market.
Capital flows, discounting for relatively un-safe business environment and weak property rights would be naturally in the direction of high interest rate bearing economies with an appreciating currency. Currency appreciation is further accentuated due capital flows themselves. Indian corporates and Indian peoples are subject to a high interest rate regime thanks to the capital controls not allowing them access to cheap capital wherever in the world it is available from. All this while the borrowings from World Bank continue un-abated. Sovereign debt India needs to repay stood at 114B USD as of 2005 (source: from deep inside worldbank.org).

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